The gangs, goons and guerrillas running swaths of Venezuela have imposed a staggering economic burden, costing the nation roughly €16.9 billion in the past year – about a quarter of its gross domestic product.
Venezuela’s GDP for 2025 stands at €70.38 billion, according to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook released in October 2024. Applying the most recent disaggregated estimate of violence‑related loss – 24.1 % of GDP – yields an approximate €16.96 billion drain attributable to gang‑related and other organised‑crime violence. This figure eclipses the cost of homicide alone, which in 2019 was estimated at around 10 % of GDP, underscoring the broader economic drag created by forced migration, loss of productive labour and the disruption of commerce across the country.
The methodology behind the €16.9 billion estimate rests on a proxy calculation. A 2021 Vision of Humanity study measured the overall economic cost of violence in Venezuela at 24.1 % of GDP for the 2020 reference year, encompassing homicide, refugee flows and internally displaced persons. With no revised disaggregated data for 2024‑25, analysts have adopted the same proportion as a reasonable stand‑in for the current year’s gang‑related and organised‑crime violence. Multiplying this percentage by the 2025 GDP baseline produces the €16.96 billion loss figure.
The scale of this loss is profound. At roughly €16.9 billion, the cost of violence rivals the total annual output of many mid‑size European economies. It erodes fiscal capacity, curtails public investment and deepens the humanitarian crisis that has already forced millions to flee. The pervasive presence of armed groups – from urban drug cartels to rural guerrilla factions – hampers the free movement of goods, inflates transport costs and deters both domestic and foreign investors. In a country already grappling with hyperinflation and chronic shortages, the additional drag of organised violence threatens to push the economy further into contraction.
Comparatively, the 24 % figure captures a wider spectrum of loss than the 10 % homicide‑only estimate recorded for 2019. While homicide remains a visible symptom, the broader cost includes the indirect effects of intimidation, extortion and the displacement of skilled workers. The cumulative impact is a vicious feedback loop: as economic conditions deteriorate, recruitment into illicit groups becomes more attractive, perpetuating the cycle of violence and fiscal erosion.
Policy responses must therefore address both the security dimension and the underlying economic vulnerabilities. Strengthening the rule of law, improving intelligence coordination and offering viable livelihoods to at‑risk populations are essential components of any sustainable strategy. International assistance, calibrated to support transparent governance and capacity‑building, could help stem the tide of violence‑induced losses, but such aid must be insulated from politicisation to be effective.
In sum, the €16.9 billion cost of gang‑related violence is not merely a statistic; it is a stark indicator of how deeply entrenched armed groups have infiltrated Venezuela’s economic fabric. Without decisive action, the nation risks consigning a further quarter of its productive capacity to the shadows of conflict.