Dispatch from Tehran: the week Iranians revolted against the regime

The streets of Iran have been ablaze for ten days, with protests spreading to at least 46 cities and a death toll that now exceeds two thousand. Demonstrators are demanding the removal of the clerical establishment, an end to compulsory hijab, and immediate economic relief. The unrest has triggered the most extensive crackdown since the 1979 Revolution, with more than 18 000 people detained and internet services cut off on 8 January. At the same time, the country’s economy is sliding deeper into contraction, its real GDP now estimated at US $356 billion for 2025 – a fall of roughly 40 % from 2010 – while oil‑export revenues have been throttled by sanctions and labour strikes.

The economic fallout began in September 2022 when the death of Mahsa Amini sparked the first large‑scale anti‑regime wave since the Islamic Revolution. Iran’s real GDP, which had risen by 5 % in 2021, fell to a contraction of 3.5 % in 2023, the first decline in a decade. Sanctions tightened in 2023‑24, pushing the economy into a further 2.8 % contraction in 2024 and slashing crude‑oil exports to about 1.5 million barrels per day as workers at state‑owned refineries walked out. By late 2025, oil‑export revenue for the fiscal year 2025/26 was US $65.8 billion – far below the regime’s budgeted target of around US $100 billion – because most sales to China are conducted on “shadow‑market” terms that prevent hard‑currency repatriation. A January 2026 Energy‑Intelligence report notes that while export volumes have rebounded to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day, the inability to bring earnings home leaves the economy “at risk of bankruptcy”.

The scale of the current uprising dwarfs the 2009 Green Movement and rivals the 1979 Revolution in geographic reach. The Green protests saw participation in all 31 provinces, with up to two million demonstrators gathering in Tehran on a single day, and resulted in 30‑72 deaths and about 1 500 arrests. The 1979 Revolution mobilised over two million Iranians and produced 2 000‑6 000 fatalities. By contrast, the 2025‑26 protests have already claimed 1 850‑2 400 lives and led to more than 20 000 arrests, making it the deadliest wave since 1979. While the Green Movement’s demands centred on annulling a disputed election and securing political freedoms, and the 1979 Revolution sought to overthrow the Shah and establish an Islamic Republic, today’s demonstrators fuse both ambitions: they call for the dismantling of the clerical hierarchy while also demanding economic justice and women’s rights – a broader agenda that reflects the lingering “Women, Life, Freedom” slogan of the 2022 protests.

Leadership in the current unrest is markedly diffuse. No single figure commands the movement, although ex‑royal Reza Pahlavi has publicly urged Iranians to join the uprising, echoing the diaspora‑driven calls of previous dissent. The regime’s response has been swift and brutal: live ammunition, tear‑gas, mass arrests and a nationwide internet blackout have been deployed, mirroring tactics used in 2009 but on a scale not seen since the 2022 crackdown.

The convergence of deepening economic distress – inflation soaring above 48 % and poverty affecting up to half the population – with an unprecedented nationwide protest movement signals a critical juncture for the Islamic Republic. Even as crude‑oil output returns to near‑seven‑year highs, the inability to convert those barrels into usable foreign exchange means the oil boom is largely a paper gain. Unless the regime can untangle sanctions, restore revenue flows and address the populace’s core grievances, Iran faces a prolonged period of economic contraction and political instability that could reshape the region’s power dynamics.

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