Iran-Russia Secret Missile Deal
Iran has entered into a covert €500 million arms contract with Russia, signed in Moscow in December 2025. The deal obliges Russia, via Rosoboronexport, to supply 500 Verba man-portable launch units together with 2,500 9M336 missiles—the ammunition for the Verba infrared-guided air-defence system. Deliveries are to be made in three equal tranches during 2027-2029. The procurement is intended to restore Iran’s short-range air-defence capability after the June 2025 Israeli-U.S. strikes that damaged its air-defence infrastructure.
Impact on Regional Balance of Power
The deal is expected to significantly boost Iran’s air-defence depth, providing the ability to field approximately 500 mobile MANPADS and 2,500 missiles. This will enable Iran to protect about 30% of its critical air-defence nodes, assuming one to two units per node. The Verba MANPADS can engage targets up to 6 km altitude and 7 km range, giving a sustained engagement envelope for low-altitude threats.
Impact on Iran’s Relationships with Neighbouring Countries
The deal is likely to escalate rhetoric and possibly lead to pre-emptive strikes from Israel, which views Iranian air-defence upgrades as a direct threat to its air superiority over the Levant. The UAE may accelerate its procurement of its own MANPADS and seek tighter security coordination with the U.S., while Saudi Arabia may request additional Patriot/MEADS batteries and consider joint Saudi-UAE air-defence exercises to offset Iranian gains.
Sources
- Reuters – Iran agreed secret shoulder-fired missile deal with Russia, FT reports
- Middle East Monitor – Iran signed nearly $590 M secret missile deal with Russia in Dec. to rebuild air-defence system
- Financial Times (pay-walled) – article cited by the above sources – https://www.ft.com/content/d034cc1a-f5fb-494e-a3c1-466e8e80ed82
- The Telegraph – Russia sold Iran thousands of shoulder-fired rockets in secret deal