Netanyahu’s Pursuit of Regime Change in Iran

Introduction

Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to pursue regime change in Iran has significant implications for the region and the world. The joint US-Israeli air campaign, dubbed ‘Operation Roaring Lion’ by Israel and ‘Epic Fury’ by the US, has already led to escalation in the region.

Diplomatic Repercussions

The potential diplomatic repercussions for Israel and its allies are far-reaching. The situation may lead to a broader Middle-East war, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states forced to choose between backing the US/Israel coalition or condemning the attack to avoid spill-over. NATO-partner nations may face pressure to issue joint statements, potentially fracturing the alliance over the legality of pre-emptive strikes.

Strain on the US-Israel ‘Special Relationship’

The US-Israel ‘special relationship’ may also be strained, with congressional backlash potentially leading to tighter oversight of future Israeli-US joint actions. If the regime falls, the US may be compelled to assume a longer-term nation-building role, stretching its resources and political capital.

Impact on Nuclear Non-Proliferation Diplomacy

The situation may also impact nuclear non-proliferation diplomacy, with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations becoming even more unlikely. European powers may be forced to choose between re-engaging Iran diplomatically or aligning with the US/Israel hard line.

Economic and Energy Market Shockwaves

The conflict may also lead to economic and energy market shockwaves, with Iran being a major OPEC-plus oil producer. The US and Israel have imposed new sanctions on Iranian entities linked to the missile program, which may lead to supply disruptions and diplomatic pressure on Israel to limit the conflict.

Human-Rights and Humanitarian Fallout

The human-rights and humanitarian fallout from the conflict is also a concern, with reports of over 7,000 civilian deaths and thousands more injured from the air campaign. Israel may face renewed UN Human Rights Council investigations and possible International Criminal Court (ICC) referrals, straining its diplomatic standing with many European and African states.

Realignment of Regional Powers

The situation may also lead to a realignment of regional powers, with a successful regime change potentially creating a power vacuum that regional rivals scramble to fill. This could lead to a new ‘great-power’ competition in the Middle East, with Israel potentially being forced into a costly security-guarantee role for any successor government.

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