Gulf Businesses Buy Up Political Violence Insurance as Conflict Spreads
The recent escalation of conflict in the Gulf region has led to a surge in political violence insurance purchases, resulting in increased premiums and potential rating pressure for companies operating in the region. The stock prices of Gulf insurers and carriers have seen a sharp, short-term sell-off, with a 3-7% decline in the shares of large-cap Gulf insurers and aviation- and marine-focused listed groups.
The banking and construction sectors have been particularly affected, with banking-sector indices falling 1.2-2.0% and construction firms seeing a share-price drift of -2% to -4% over the month. The energy sector has been relatively insulated, with energy-sector indices remaining flat.
The increase in political violence insurance purchases has also led to a jump in marine-hull insurance rates, with a 25-50% increase in premiums quoted by Marsh’s Dylan Mortimer. Insurers are raising premiums by 15-20%, which is eroding profit margins and prompting rating-agency warnings.
Key Quotes
- “Higher premiums offer some temporary cushion, but accumulating war-risk exposures, investment-portfolio volatility, and potential correlated losses could affect insurers’ credit profiles.” - Morningstar DBRS, 28 Feb 2026
- “The surge in political-violence policies is being reflected in tighter profit forecasts, and we are already seeing a 3-point widening of price-to-earnings multiples for insurers that have doubled their coverage.” - Senior Gulf-market analyst, quoted in Financial Times, 4 Mar 2026
- “Marine hull insurance rates in the Gulf could rise 25-50% due to the conflict.” - Dylan Mortimer, Marine Hull UK War Leader, Marsh, 28 Feb 2026
Sources
- Reinsurers likely to raise prices & reduce capacity in the Gulf amid Iran conflict – Morningstar DBRS (Reinsurance News)
- Gulf businesses buy up political violence insurance as conflict spreads – Financial Times (pay-walled, quoted in analysis)
- Risk vs Reality: Why Companies in the GCC Should Differentiate … – Lockton Global