Iran War Chokes Gulf Oil Exports
The ongoing conflict in Iran has significantly impacted Gulf oil exports, with a potential revenue loss of $42 billion for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) bloc. This loss could translate to a -1.5% to -2% hit on the GCC’s combined GDP.
Estimated Revenue Loss and GDP Impact
The estimated revenue loss for countries reliant on Gulf oil exports is substantial. For the GCC bloc, the daily revenue loss is approximately $1.9 billion, which could amount to $42 billion over a 22-day storage buffer period. This loss would have a significant impact on the GDP of individual countries, with Saudi Arabia potentially losing -1.8% of its GDP, the UAE losing -0.9%, and Kuwait losing -0.7%.
Impact on Oil-Importing Developing Economies
Oil-importing developing economies will also be affected, with higher global oil prices raising import costs and feeding into inflation. This could reduce real disposable income and lead to a decrease in economic activity. The IMF notes that higher energy prices are ‘stagflationary’, simultaneously pushing up inflation and depressing economic activity.
Bottom Line
The immediate revenue loss for the Gulf oil exporters is approximately $42 billion if exports are halted after the 22-day storage window. This loss could have a significant impact on the GDP of individual countries and the region as a whole. Oil-importing developing economies will also be affected, with higher import bills eroding real output and leading to a decrease in economic activity.
Sources
- The economic fallout of the Iran war for Indo‑Pacific developing countries – Lowy Institute
- How a Conflict in Iran Could Affect Oil Markets in the Gulf Arab States – Columbia Energy Policy Institute
- The Iran war puts Asia in an energy panic – The Economist (8 Mar 2026)
- Iran war: How long before Gulf nations stop pumping oil? – DW.com (12 Mar 2026)
- War with Iran spreading economic damage far beyond oil and gas markets – Washington Post (8 Mar 2026)