Wall Street Warns of Prolonged Energy Crisis Due to Iran War

The conflict between Iran and other nations has sparked concerns of a prolonged energy crisis, with significant implications for the global economy. The crisis is expected to affect various sectors, including oil-tanker/shipping, integrated E&P, refining, LNG supply & trading, mid-stream/pipelines, and power generation.

Sectors and Companies Likely to See Revenue Swings

The following sectors and companies are expected to see significant revenue fluctuations as a result of the anticipated energy crisis:

• Oil-tanker/shipping: VLCC operators and ship-charter brokers, such as Bergesen and MISC, are expected to see a surge in charter rates, with a potential increase of $330,000 per day per vessel.
• Integrated E&P: Companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell are expected to see higher crude prices, boosting their upstream margins, but may face exposure to Middle-East supply risk.
• Refining: Non-Gulf-based refiners, such as Venture Global LNG and Cheniere Energy, are expected to see higher product spreads and LNG price spikes, resulting in increased revenue.
• LNG Supply & Trading: Companies like QatarEnergy, Cheniere, and Venture Global are expected to see price spikes and capture arbitrage gains due to Qatar’s force majeure on 20% of global LNG.
• Mid-stream/pipelines: Companies like Kinder Morgan, Williams Companies, and Enbridge are expected to see higher throughput fees as shippers reroute around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Power Generation: Gas-fired utilities, such as NextEra Energy and Duke Energy, are expected to see higher gas prices, squeezing their margins.

  Bottom-Line Forecast

  The bottom-line forecast for these sectors and companies includes:

• Shipping: VLCC charter-rate index expected to stay at $400-$500,000 per day for the next 3-6 months.
• Upstream E&P: Average upstream profit margins for listed majors could rise $5-$8 billion in Q1-Q2 2026.
• LNG exporters: Weekly cash-flow uplift of $0.8-$1.2 billion for U.S. LNG firms while spot LNG prices hover $12-$15/MMBtu above pre-conflict levels.
• Refiners: U.S. Gulf-Coast refining margins projected to improve 30-45% through Q3 2026, while Asian refiners face margin compression of 15-25% due to feedstock cost spikes.

Sources

• The Globe and Mail – “The impact of the Iran crisis on energy markets continues to widen” (5 Mar 2026)
• Grist – “The Iran war is raising energy prices. These companies are profiting.” (6 Mar 2026)
• Reuters – “Charting the widening impact of the Iran crisis on energy markets” (5 Mar 2026)
• Janus Henderson – “Quick View: The Iran conflict’s impact on global energy markets” (date not listed, accessed 14 Mar 2026)
• Reuters – “Iran war threatens prolonged hit to global energy markets” (7 Mar 2026)