Introduction
The potential recasting of ties between the Fed and Treasury in the image of the Bank of England (BoE) has been discussed by Bessent. This shift could have significant implications for US stock markets, GDP growth, and revenue numbers for major financial institutions.
Impact on Revenue Numbers
A more stable interest-rate environment could lead to a rise in net interest income (NII) for major banks. For example, if the volatility of the federal-funds rate falls by 25 bps, NII for JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup could increase by roughly $0.6-$1.0 bn. Additionally, a joint Fed-Treasury operating framework could generate new government-service fees for large banks, estimated at $0.3-$0.5 bn per year. Regulatory harmonization could also result in cost savings for banks, with 1% of combined 2023 operating expenses translating to approximately $1.3 bn in savings.
Overall Illustrative Revenue Impact
The overall illustrative revenue impact for 2024-25 could be an increase of $0.5-$1.5 bn for each of the three largest US banks, representing 0.4-1.1% of their 2023 revenue base.
Sources
- Investopedia, Difference Between U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Explained
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Relations with the Federal Reserve
- Bank of England, Press release: Bank of England and HM Treasury working together on fiscal policy
- Rethinking Economics, Understanding the Bank of England
- Yale Insights, Do Treasury and the Fed Need a Relationship Reset?
- JPMorgan Chase & Co., 2023 Annual Report
- Bank of America, 2023 Annual Report
- Citigroup, 2023 Annual Report