Crisis of his own making: Trump weighs another war with Iran

The potential geopolitical implications of another US-Iran conflict on regional stability are significant. A U.S. strike would likely hit Gulf-Arab oil export capacity and shipping lanes, leading to a spike in oil prices and daily revenue losses exceeding $15 billion if the Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked.

Regional Military Escalation

Iranian proxies could open simultaneous fronts in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Red Sea, potentially involving eight or more states within two weeks. This would lead to a broader regional war, triggering a chain reaction that drags at least five additional states into combat.

Strategic Realignment

The Saudi-U.S. partnership could weaken if Iran is perceived as a diminished threat, prompting Riyadh to seek rapprochement with Tehran or China. China’s economic foothold in Tehran deepens, with Belt-and-Road investments in Iran reaching $12 billion in 2025, offering Tehran an alternative patron.

Humanitarian Impact

Civilian casualties in Iran and proxy territories could reach several thousand within the first month, with projected refugee flows of approximately 250,000 Iranians seeking asylum in Turkey and Iraq.

Nuclear Proliferation Risk

A strike could accelerate Iran’s push for a nuclear deterrent or, conversely, push it toward a negotiated limit. Iran’s enriched-uranium stockpile was approximately 3 kg of 60% U-235 as of December 2025.

Maritime Security

Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden could disrupt 20% of global container traffic, with average daily container throughput of approximately 30 million TEU. A 10-day closure would delay approximately 300 million TEU.

Differences in Trump’s Iran Policy

Trump’s current policies towards Iran differ from those during his previous term in office. The first term abandoned the JCPOA and imposed sanctions, while the second term publicly pursues a new nuclear agreement while still keeping pressure tools.

From Withdrawal to Negotiation

The first term relied on a ‘maximum-pressure’ campaign, while the second term adds a 25% tariff regime targeting third-party countries that trade with Iran.

From Sanctions-Only to Tariffs + Sanctions

The 2025-26 rhetoric includes direct threats of ‘bombing the likes of which they have never seen’ and contingency plans for ‘obliteration’ if Trump is assassinated.

From Limited Military Signaling to a Full-Scale Force Buildup

The ‘Board of Peace’ coalition seeks to combine diplomatic outreach with coordinated economic and military pressure, a shift from the first term’s largely solo U.S. approach.

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